The modern world will not accommodate bigotry of the sort India is showing the world today, argues Aakar Patel.
Maharashtra Deputy CM Eknath Shinde launched a veiled attack on Uddhav Thackeray, invoking characters from a film to criticize Thackeray's leadership and policies ahead of upcoming municipal elections. Shinde highlighted government initiatives and defended his position, while also criticizing the opposition's performance.
'This is purely transactional politics -- there exists no family reunion as such.'
The DMK may consider a two-tier campaign, where they keep the focus on Chief Minister Stalin, as a senior statesman with 50-plus years of political experience, and let EPS and the BJP shout in the wilderness. In such a case, the second-tier may project Udhayanidhi as the contender and chosen obstructionist in Vijay's path. The attempt, if any, would be to reduce Vijay to Udhayanidhi's level when the former is aiming at Stalin and Stalin alone in the state's political horizon, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy.
'...the electoral playing field is tilted significantly in its favour.'
'More than 9.5% new voters have been added to the electoral voters' list compared to the 2024 Lok Sabha election.' 'This led to an increase in about 5% to 6% in total votes polled for this assembly election.' 'That has tilted hugely in our favour because we worked hard for registration of these voters and concentrated on bringing out these new voters out during this assembly election.'
Like his father Karunanidhi and AIADMK rivals MGR and Jayalalithaa, Stalin would like to confine his real political work to Tamil Nadu, and not want to take after the late Congress leader K Kamaraj and take up a national role, even if to create greater political space for son Udhayanidhi, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
In the last 11 years, India and the world witnessed what he stood for, what he promised and did not deliver, and what he actually stood for and practised without fearing how history would judge him. Modi's tenure has been punctuated with headline-grabbing decisions, symbolic gestures, and stage-managed moments that continue to define his leadership and India's politics, points out Ramesh Menon.
'Modi's charisma may have weakened as last year's Lok Sabha poll results showed but in the eyes of the Sangh Parivar, it has not waned.' 'Minus a strong BJP government at the Centre for another decade and more, there is apprehension that an anti-Hindutva government could reverse many of the ideological gains that the Modi dispensation has achieved through its three terms,' points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
While acknowledging that they needed strong allies for a chance in the assembly polls, AIADMK cadres seemingly prefer actor-politician Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam to the BJP, owing to the latter's 'communal agenda' and consequent hardline Hindutva image, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
Our ancestors did jihad against Britishers, but yours penned 'love letters', Owaisi said in a jibe to Fadnavis.
'Mamata needs to address the anger and resentment among various sections of the Hindu community because low-scale communal violence has always paid richer electoral dividends for the BJP.'
Thackeray said people should be aware of how religious issues are raked up to distract their attention from core issues.
He alleged Union Home Minister Amit Shah had directed BJP leaders in a "closed-door" meeting to "stop" him (Uddhav) and Sharad Pawar politically.
Vijay has a lot of young and middle-aged women fans, but as voters, they are possibly now with the DMK, or remain with the AIADMK. Recapturing this constituency would have helped Vijay's political launch and the GOAT script and dialogues could have gone a long way in helping out. But the kind of script and screenplay and the unusually and equally unnecessary long run-time (3 hours, 3 minutes) that GOAT offers takes the film experience over the heads of those that are not familiar with secret agents and uranium theft in Tamil cinema, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Much drama is likely to continue in the coming year, within the Sangh Parivar as well as involving the Opposition parties and, of course the BJP's allies, predicts Modi biographer Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay.
After being sworn in as the 47th president of the United States, Trump started his inaugural address with a sentence that echoed Modi's coinage some years ago, notes Modi biographer Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay.
'Besides Ayodhya, the BJP lost in nine other constituencies with a Ramayana imprint; it tasted success only in Thrissur.' 'In Rameswaram, K Navaskani of the Indian Union Muslim League won with a 44% voteshare in a 84% Hindu constituency.' 'In the 21 seats in the Ayodhya and Varanasi regions, both crucial to the Hindutva project, the BJP won just 7.' 'It won just 3 out of 12 seats around Modi's constituency,' points out Krishna Prasad.
It's obvious to all that the Congress is overestimating its success and the BJP is underestimating the people's message delivered through the ballot box, notes Sheela Bhatt.
Successive elections have demonstrated that the BJP campaign switches towards polarisation when it is faced with palpable discontent among the electorate, notes Utkarsh Mishra.
'People want to do business in the name of the Kedarnath temple.'
The biggest challenge will be to convert his regime into a coalition of minds. But given the fact that he is instinctively an authoritarian leader and supporter of the hard Hindutva line, the survival of his government will depend on his ability to balance between his heart and mind, between instinct and pragmatism, asserts Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, author of Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times.
'Union Budgets are often used as political instruments and that was the intention of this government too.' 'But while the exercise has settled two fronts, it has left open several others and this has the potential to aggravate with time,' predicts Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay.
Those who continue to think that the 2024 election will see the BJP pursuing a more militant line are being alarmist, argues Rajeev Mantri. The BJP, Mantri believes, is not about to shoot itself in the foot. If anything, he says, the BJP may be more inclined to push a harder secularism.
A revealing excerpt from Rahul Shivshankar and Siddhartha Talya's book, Modi & India: 2024 and the Battle for Bharat.
A new entrant, whether a popular actor or not, has not been able to sweep the polls, as their fans had hoped for. Given a proven pattern, it should hold true for Vijay as well. Or, something drastically has to happen between now and 2026, asserts N Sathiya Moorthy.
'Every Indian who is concerned about the unity, integrity and the map of India should be worried about this growing divide.'
The BJP took a dig at Gandhi, saying the Congress vice president was visiting temples as his party has failed to win elections in the state for long time.
Shailaja Teacher, arguably the most famous Covid warrior in India, versus former student leader Shafi Parambil who defeated 'Metro Man' E Sreedharan in the last assembly election. Shyam G Menon reports from the Vadakara Lok Sabha constituency, which some feel is the most politically important contest in Kerala this election.
A string of populist promises, including extension of the free ration scheme announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Mahadev betting app issue and the Hindutva card are among key factors that have catapulted the Bharatiya Janata Party to power in Chhattisgarh after five years.
'Since the goal of taking everyone along on the path of development -- sabka saath sabka vikas -- requires an atmosphere of amity, there cannot but be an emphasis on the primacy of law and order -- and it cannot be only against road-side Romeos or gutka chewers,' says Amulya Ganguli.
'It is an existential crisis. We cannot recover lost ground through social media. We need to forge alliances and reshape our ideological contours.'
If Tamil Nadu voters preferred the DMK combine, it owed to the Modi-Annamalai combo's ideological battle which often crossed the line of political decency and also challenged 'Tamil pride', argues N Sathiya Moorthy.
In switching over, Nitish has sent out a message that if he could not now become the NDA's PM, then he would need to stay on as CM at the very least, which a third term for Modi would not let him have, N Sathiya Moorthy points out.
'Even if the government does not implement an all-India NRC before 2024, it will be part of the party's long-term project.'
The Bharatiya Janata Party's comprehensive defeat to the Congress in Karnataka where the two parties ran a campaign of contrasts has left the ruling party much to ponder as the two rivals are facing a direct contest in three more state polls this year in the run-up to the all-important 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
'We will win all the 28 Lok Sabha seats in 2024.'
Brand India's societal divisions and distortions have remained as much relevant in 'liberal' America and Europe as it still is in the structurally stratified Indian society of the 21st century, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Congress victory in Karnataka, its first big state since 2018, puts the party back in the game for general elections as it re-establishes primacy in the opposition space that is currently vastly fragmented despite efforts to cobble up a united front against the BJP.
'Mohan Bhagwat is very upfront with his views and arguments.' 'Mohan Bhagwat is competent to deal with Modi's personality cult.'
As some BJP pollsters concede, the Modi leadership's sweeping success in elections 2019, especially across central India, owed not to Hindutva ideology, but to welfare schemes, all of them borrowed from Tamil Nadu, reveals N Sathiya Moorthy.
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